I’ve been thinking about how the volume of Google searches (or more likely, Twitter and Facebook status updates) could be used to track swine flu/H1N1 activity. I recently noticed that “real” scientists have been looking at this, too.
The journal “Nature” published an article titled “Detecting influenza epidemics using search engine query data” in November of 2008. The abstract states:
One way to improve early detection is to monitor health-seeking behaviour in the form of queries to online search engines, which are submitted by millions of users around the world each day. Here we present a method of analysing large numbers of Google search queries to track influenza-like illness in a population. Because the relative frequency of certain queries is highly correlated with the percentage of physician visits in which a patient presents with influenza-like symptoms, we can accurately estimate the current level of weekly influenza activity in each region of the United States, with a reporting lag of about one day.
(What — a lag of one day? That’s soooo 2008. )
Interesting as it is, I doubt that the volume of search queries (or tweets or Facebook updates) accurately represents actual infections. To me, this looks like a great way to track the public awareness and/or anxiety level about a disease. In other words, it’s a good way to follow the hype, but doesn’t tell us much about actual sickness.
Can Tweet volumes tell us a more meaningful story? Let’s look at a few examples of recent tweets containing “h1n1″:
- VictorylovesHN Just got my H1N1 vaccine.
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dakotanews First Dakota County H1N1 Vaccine Clinic http://bit.ly/4ue7aZ -
immuneprotect Amid vaccine/Tamiflu shortages mother whose son died with H1N1 gives warning http://bit.ly/2n3KMx -
blackbeautyshi Keep Your Kids Safe From H1N1 This Halloween: Keep Your Kids Safe From H1N1 This Halloween More Recent A.. http://bit.ly/2nZ4mX -
remitos RT @wwwhatsnew Robot simula síntomas de gripe H1N1 http://bit.ly/Ifs3K - tweeturlungsout Keep Your Kids Safe From H1N1 This Halloween: Keep Your Kids Safe From H1N1 This Halloween More Recent A.. http://bit.ly/2nZ4mX
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Eva2009Sophie Happy and safe halloween to those of you participating in it,they said on news here don’t let kids put their handsn candy,give it 2them-h1n1 -
bwchealth Livingston County Health Center deals with H1N1 flu virus http://bit.ly/4E7Tuz -
Herbaleena Herbal Drink Cure & Preventative From H1N1 £20+P&P #H1N1 London #H1N1 UK #H1N1 Britain #H1N1 Scotland #H1N1 Ireland #H1N1 wales -
SwineFluInst #SwineFlu Child H1N1 Swine Flu Deaths Rising - WebMD http://ow.ly/15YrZ5
Notice that not one of these is actually a tweet by a person infected with H1N1. In contrast, Tweets containing the words “getting sick” are much more evocative:
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DANE_YOUNG Ughhhhhh I thnk i am getting sick…The worst..N now i am mad -
timungashick Getting ready for neighborhood #Halloween party. We have Dorothy, Wicked Witch, Lion, Scarecrow and Munchkin. Tin Man is sick and in bed. -
mistresscaitlin Got up from a nap. Still sick, but not as bad as I thought I was getting hit. Going to be late for pumpkin carving 
but need food first. -
Jesabugg is getting 2 sick girls ready for bed…hope the medicine kicks in so they can go trick or treating! - mygoodcents The child is getting sick. I just gave all my money to Henrys Marketplace and now have a bag of promises to make him better b4 it gets bad.
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shanslaughter I lit a candle for my dad today. I’m pretty sick and tired of hearing about people getting cancer. My uncle’s dying,too. Fuck you, God. -
misha_yuryevich いまから病院 I have bonchial asthma for years. I am tring to keep exercise to avoid getting sick. After seeing a respiratorist, I’ll go swimming. -
MusicSavvyMom Busy Day - Liam crashed in the car on the way home, still asleep on the sofa. He NEVER naps. Lord, I hope he’s not getting sick! -
LSierra570 I really appreciate that the Office keeps all its NEPA references straight. I do not appreciate getting sick. Cheers/Jeers. (via @mmmeghan) -
ninaescolar @cathypaulino Haha idk. Hopefully. I’m so excited. Still dont know the release date tho. Btw i think I’m getting sick. Ugh ate’s fault!
Let’s see how twitter trends for “getting sick” look on Trendistic:
Wow, that’s an ugly chart! I can’t draw much of a conclusion here other than this might be too noisy a measurement to give us any useful information.
What do you search for when you’re getting sick? Not worried about getting sick, but actually getting sick?
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